Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,643$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(304 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,653.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 70.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,653.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.3}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(57.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243$ on 2020-06-26

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,590$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(593 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{615,753.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 127.1)}}\) (asimptote \(615,753.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,340$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(34.6 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,390.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 83.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,390.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,139$ on 2020-06-26

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,552$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,500.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 83.3)}}\) (asimptote \(8,500.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $149$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{605.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(605.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,503$ on 2020-06-26

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,907$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.09 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,841.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,841.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(0.644 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 72.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,507$ on 2020-06-26

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,755$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(939 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,026.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 100.8)}}\) (asimptote \(113,026.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,620$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(73.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,398$ on 2020-06-26

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,001$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(95.2 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,835.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,835.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,454$ on 2020-06-26

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,685$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,056.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 61.5)}}\) (asimptote \(13,056.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $885$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(172 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{848.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(848.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,734$ on 2020-06-26

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,027$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(33.9 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,035.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 99.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,035.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(0.495 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $449$ on 2020-06-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 97%
Djibouti recovered 90%
Uganda recovered 87%
Sierra Leone recovered 18%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $865$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(28.7 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.4}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(71.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-26

Uganda⮸

Population $45,741,007$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $833$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(43.5 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,011.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 63.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,011.0\)) 
Uganda doesn't yet have 4.5741 dead per thousand.

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $72$ on 2020-06-26

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,394$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,461.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,461.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59$ on 2020-06-26

Best fit exponential: \(14.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(53.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $421$ on 2020-06-26